Research and publications

Momentum Profits and Non-Normality Risks

This paper examines the role of non-normality risks in explaining the momentum puzzle of equity returns. It shows that momentum returns are not normally distributed. About 70 basis points of the annual momentum profits can be attributed to systematic skewness risk. This finding is pervasive across nine strategies and is reinforced when time dependencies in abnormal returns and risks are explicitly modeled. The analysis also reveals that the market and skewness risks of momentum portfolios evolve over the business cycle in a manner that is consistent with market timing and risk aversion. A revisited version of this paper was published in the June 2009 issue of Applied Financial Economics.

Author(s) :

Ana-Maria Fuertes, Joëlle Miffre and Wooi-Hou Tan

Summary :

This paper examines the role of non-normality risks in explaining the momentum puzzle of equity returns. It shows that momentum returns are not normally distributed. About 70 basis points of the annual momentum profits can be attributed to systematic skewness risk. This finding is pervasive across nine strategies and is reinforced when time dependencies in abnormal returns and risks are explicitly modeled. The analysis also reveals that the market and skewness risks of momentum portfolios evolve over the business cycle in a manner that is consistent with market timing and risk aversion. A revisited version of this paper was published in the June 2009 issue of Applied Financial Economics.

Register to download PDF

Register
Type : Working paper
Date : 02/05/2007
Keywords :

Performance Measurement